A Basic History to Models of Rational Inference
The Laplacean Demon was arguably the foundation for many models of rational inference in the early 20th century, and influence individuals such as George Boole to Jean Piaget. The classical view at the time was that the law of human inference are laws of probability and statistics. Individuals who held this view supported the notion that the human brain/ mind had an unlimited capacity, knowledge and time to make rational inferences in a given situation.
This stance was confronted by individuals such as Goldstein and Gigerenzer; Tversky and Kahneman. Many researcher argued that in a real life situation the notion that an individual has access to an unlimited capacity and knowledge with no boundary of time was highly unrealistic; furthermore Goldstein and Gigerenzer (1996) argued that within a real life situation there are constraints both internal (human knowledge) and external (time) when an individual has to make a rational inference. Tversky and Kahneman went one step further by proposing that human inference is systematically biased and error prone due to these constraints.
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